National currency fluctuations

Y. Nadorshin, tutor at the HSE International College of Economics and Finance  and senior economist at Trust Investment Bank, speaks on ruble depreciation origins.

 "The Central Bank is adjusting its activity to the market. If oil's up and sentiment is good, it allows more appreciation," said Yevgeny Nadorshin. "They're now having to deal with appreciation pressure unlike before, and they are taking it slowly."

The ruble was little changed at 33.59 per dollar, dropping 0.8 percent in the week. It gained for a second day against the euro, strengthening 0.4 percent to 44.13, bringing its weekly advance to 1.8 percent. The basket is made up of about 55 percent dollars and the rest euros.

Trust Investment predicts that the ruble will trade at 40.5 against the basket by the end of the year should Urals be at $50 a barrel, Nadorshin said. The bank is not ruling out further devaluation, though, should an average Urals price of $35 per barrel lead to declining revenue and a budget deficit of as much as $20 billion, he said.

"If oil falls back, then we'll definitely have a current-account deficit, and it may require more ruble depreciation than I've forecast," Nadorshin said.

From the Moscow Times