Scenarios for Russia in the Long-Term Period. A New Impulse in Two Decades
This report has been prepared by Evgeniy Yasin, Academic Supervisor of the HSE, to XIII April International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development.
From the author
This booklet is based on the last two chapters of the book, which was released in January 2012. This is the 2nd edition of the paper «Will democracy settle down in Russia». Two circumstances caused the preparation of this booklet.
The first is the feeling that an independent, separate discussion of these issues set out in two chapters, alternatives and prospects of Russian after market reforms of the 90’s, the transformation of the crisis and restoring growth in «zero» years with some clear movement within political stability — even without all theoretical and empirical studies set out in the 2nd edition — can be helpful.
Second, after I became a part of collective of professionals working on behalf of the government over the «Strategy 2020» under the expert sites HSE and ANHGS, I find very important to publicly state my own position, so that later no one could say that, after turning into this collective, I changed it in favor of the official line. To be perfectly clear, I believe quite radical institutional changes are absolutely necessary for the real modernization, including a full-fledged political democratization, in whatever terms they may be implemented. And at the same time, under the circumstances, would have preferred a gradual development, with no state of emergency.
When I wrote Part I of this brochure, I did not expect any significant events likely to change something in Russia unexpectedly. Though, then after rereading the brochure, I realized that it is riddled with the expectation of change and sorrow over their low probability.
Then came December 4, 2011. I note: exactly 20 years after the start of market reforms. It would seem as ordinary Duma elections. And in fact, a sharp turn: how one American newspaper wrote, the Russian again showed a taste for democracy. And once again I had to think over the possible developments after this turn. The point, as I understand it, can be expressed simply. Post-communist Russia needed two major institutional shifts: in the economy — from plan to market, in politics — from totalitarianism to democracy. The first part of the work was done under the leadership of Yegor Gaidar, but with delays in democracy. It seemed that democracy is not our destiny and our country, having the highest potential for development, won’t build a market democracy. But no! The elections in December 2011 showed that there are opportunities. Which ones, how to use them — these are issues that deserve to be discussed.
See also:
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The anniversary 25th Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development will take place from April 15 to 18. This year, over a thousand applications were submitted to present at the conference, of which the Programme Committee selected 381 of the best research papers in their respective fields.
HSE University Announces Call for Proposals to Attend Anniversary Yasin Conference
HSE University invites submissions of proposals with academic reports for participation in the 25th Yasin (April) International Academic Conference (YIAC). The conference programme, centred on five research themes addressing issues of economic and social development, will retain its interdisciplinary focus and welcome participation from leading scientists in Russia and around the globe. The key events of the 25th Yasin Conference will be taking place in Moscow from April 15 to 18, 2025.
25th Yasin (April) International Academic Conference Now Accepting Proposals
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